Is this possibile? 54.5%, 30 plays a day and $200 a play- this is 97k profit a year

[Iceman]

Last hoops season (Mid Feb thru March- 6 weeks) I hit about 54.5% concentrating on somethings others have taught me. I did work my ASS off but I enjoyed the most success I have ever enjoyed EVER in gambling over alot of plays.

This month I took the same approach from last year and for close to 350 plays and have hit 57% in hoops (football doing solid all year, NFL not college). Now granted some of these plays have been against square locals (around 8 of the plays) and I have put in my 5+ hours a day, so it has been alot of work more than most could ever imagine.

The bad thing (or good I guess) is I have always been an ULTRA conservative gambler (unless middling or scalping) and like to figure everything on paper. The part that has me a little a frustrated is I have been betting close to .005% of my bankroll because I am making alot of plays and am worried about the bad streak. So these plays are just $100 plays but I am betting 30 plays a nite.

What part of the above equation seems the most unlikely to do moving forward:
A) 54.5% win pct
B) 30 GOOD plays a day (which I can promise you is not difficult)
C) the possibilitiy of a 200 bet (one week) slump (80-120 wipes out half of your bankroll if you are betting ).

Either or as you can tell I am at a crossroads. The math I posted on the top of thread doens't seem that overly difficult, does it? I am trying to stay level headed here but think betting $100 a play is blowing my oppurtunity every day, that I could be maxing out at this. The best thing is when I lose I don't hardly care at all. I NEVER really watch a game or pay extra close attention because $100 plays are very comfortable for me.

I know the last few posts on here I have sounded like a degenerate but I guess it is because I have always been so conservative. I am not talking about upping my bet size too much(from $100 to $200 a play) but almost feel that if I am on to something I need to go for it a little more. Do you ever get down on yourself for being a little too cautious. I have all the results in front of me (around 1,000 plays). I know most are going to say slow down and that don't do anything stupid. I ABSOLUETLY promise I won't but is 54.5% pct over 30 plays a nite during a big bordd season such as hoops out of the question (esp when you throw in HT, 1st halves, quarter lines and those are some of the bets I have been betting) or do you think you end up starting to play scared. Not at all trying to sound cocky and gambling has always kicked me in the teeth if I have ever got out of line in the past. But when do you ever turn it up? I wanted a raise for all this work I am putting into this:lolBIG:

 

[Iceman]

I do want to add that during bases, I pretty much sucked at lost most of 6 weeks profits. Slowly and steady i got beat. So another question is 54.5% attainable going from sport to sport, probably not on my end.

 

[Iceman]

The 1 key thing I forgot to add is this is not against widely avaibile numbers. Not absurd numbers but not WA. Which I say 54.5% cannot be accomplished against WA over 30 plays a nite on average.

 

[slick69]

30 good plays a night seems like a lot of work. Couldn't you bet about 15-20 and still make near 100k a year at 54%; with $200 plays; if you add in scalping, middling, and bonuses.

 

[Akillies]

The 1 key thing I forgot to add is this is not against widely avaibile numbers. Not absurd numbers but not WA. Which I say 54.5% cannot be accomplished against WA over 30 plays a nite on average.

i will agee this is very difficult to sustain [wa].
30 plays seems too much.
if you are confident in your % you can use kelly to determine optimal bet size. The object should be to maximize bet size to what you are comfortable with, so that stress doesnt effect the %. ie. chasing

 

[CollegeFan]

I would say the '30 plays per night' would be the most difficult.

If you do increase your bankroll, and just hit a mini-slump, this will affect your handicapping, IMO. Right now, you don't have much pressure to win b/c you're not betting a large % of your bankroll. BUT, if you increase this, the pressure will increase, and sooner or later, you will be playing with "scared" money. Then your style will change and you will start to make ulta-conservative plays..

Just my 2 cents...

 

[Iceman]

Guys,
30 is really nothing this time of the year. Like I said 90% of these are not WA and some come from a local. With 1st halves, HT, quarters in NBA and a HUGE CBB board 30 is very attainable.

 

[Valuebets]

I don't know ICE, it just seems usually ladyluck suddenly goes on vacation when you increase your wagers. From my understanding it sounds like you're hardpressed about making atleast 30 plays a night. What would happen if you had one of those horrific nights, would you stay on course and make solid 30 plays a night or probably start making plays just to get back even.

 

[jwunderdog]

the odds of you going on a losing run of 40% over 200 plays is less then 2 %, maybe less then 1%. I know off the top of my head that someone betting 50/50 props had less then a 3% chance using 100 trials of hitting 60%. You are talking about a 54/46% over a larger trial so the odds are way lower then 3%.

 

[Iceman]

I would say the '30 plays per night' would be the most difficult.

If you do increase your bankroll, and just hit a mini-slump, this will affect your handicapping, IMO. Right now, you don't have much pressure to win b/c you're not betting a large % of your bankroll. BUT, if you increase this, the pressure will increase, and sooner or later, you will be playing with "scared" money. Then your style will change and you will start to make ulta-conservative plays..

Just my 2 cents...

great point and my biggest fear. $200 a play isn't that much but when you put 6k into play on average a nite instead of 3k than the pressure goes way up.

 

[D2bets]

30 on a big day might not be a problem but there are slow times in the year. 30 average might be pushing it. But if your history shows that it is, then all the best. Almost 11,000 wagers per year, nice. Yeah, so justunder $9 profit per wager will give you what you want. Based on 54.5% and 220/200 at 11,000 wagers will give you your 97K.

 

[Valuebets]

ICE, how about starting off increasing your wager sizes for bets that you feel have very high chance of hitting. What you're proposing is very similar to online poker players who are deciding if they should move up to higher games or play more tables. I think the solid advice is to take shots until you're completely comfortable.

 

[Iceman]

30 on a big day might not be a problem but there are slow times in the year. 30 average might be pushing it. But if your history shows that it is, then all the best. Almost 11,000 wagers per year, nice. Yeah, so justunder $9 profit per wager will give you what you want. Based on 54.5% and 220/200 at 11,000 wagers will give you your 97K.

yeah I may have to tone it down quite a bit because I have no way proven methods on bases and that is around 50% of the year.

I guess the key question is what is easier to do lose 20k or win 50k betting non WA numbers. This is the point I am not stressing enough. What is likely to happen first?

 

[Iceman]

ICE, how about starting off increasing your wager sizes for bets that you feel have very high chance of hitting. What you're proposing is very similar to online poker players who are deciding if they should move up to higher games or play more tables. I think the solid advice is to take shots until you're completely comfortable.

I am a big p---y when it comes to this. Just trying to move to the next level and like always make sure I am ready for it. It is just weird to think I am getting mad lately when I win. Like I am blowing it.

 

[MrCleo]

ICE, for just one day could you go ahead and Post 30 plays? and do you force yourself to have some sort of action on every game on the board?

 

[BobbyKnight]

just a thought, why not try increasing to $150 per play, and see how this treats you?

 

[mike0187]

You are thinking of doing this based on 1,000 plays????

IMO you need closer to 50,000 plays to give this a go.

 

[royalfan]

Ofcourse it can be done, as I have told you time and time again. Much easier to win money by winning, than grinding away scalping, middling, taking leads etc., especially if you want to only work about ten hours a week like me.

 

[HPark1]

Finding 30 plays with equity every day is a tad unrealistic.

 

[Iceman]

ICE, for just one day could you go ahead and Post 30 plays? and do you force yourself to have some sort of action on every game on the board?

No forcing just follow a method. Here is what I have so far today:
Phoenix -10.5
over 97 Dallas (1st half)
San Antonio -7 (now this was at 5 Dimes for almost an hour last nite. They messed up as it opened everywher else at -9 or so. This is a very rare case).
Dallas -7.5
over 192 Dallas
Washingotn -3
New Jersey -6.5
Indiana +3
over 195.5 Dallas
over 191.5 Boston
under 181.5 Memphis
over 103 Miami (1st half)
under 96 Cleveland (1st half)
Indiana +1.5 -105 (1st half)
over 88 Memphis (1st half)

this is just a small sampling. I really like CBB better but the board is small lately. Remember these are not WA and I will get out of some if the numbers go against me. Combines with the fact that I have a few locals that use newspaper lines (worse part is I am barely up on them).
I will also try to middle some of these bets if it looks worth it. I find most of my plays right before games and have done GREAT with halftimes (something I never did last year). Hard to get a complete feel posting them but looking at getting great numbers overall.